Saturday, 16 May 2015

VALUE PICK - PINCON SPIRIT LTD - GTS 3 ANSWER


About The Company & Business
Pincon Spirit Ltd (PSL) is headquartered in Kolkata, West Bengal.
The company incorporated in 1978 is promoted by Mr Manoranjan Roy who was recently awarded Outstanding Entrepreneurship Award for outstanding and exemplary achievements in Entrepreneurship from Enterprise Asia at the Asia Pacific Entrepreneurship Awards 2015.

PSL is in branded IMFL business. Product portfolio includes: Highland Blue Deluxe Whisky, XXX Rum, King's Coin Vodka, Pincon 9000 Beer. The company also deals in country spirit and edible oils.

The corporate office of the company is located in Bengaluru. The company is having its factories in Kolkata, 24 Paragnas and Agra (U.P).

PSL is listed on the BSE via direct listing norms and it has also submitted the application to list on NSE last month.

Kuntal Chatterjee is the COO of the company. Mr Chatterjee was a part of Allied Blenders & Distillers the makers of Officer's Choice which is a very successful brand. Mr Chatterjee has also held responsible position at Diageo.

The Ace Investor - Value Pick
PINCON SPIRIT LTD.
  BSE: 538771
PSL is currently trading around 115 with a market cap of around 120 crores.
Total Debt is around 62 crores, 52 week high is around 200 and 52 week low is around 70.

PSL is having presence in the sates of West Bengal, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Sikkim, and Daman. The company is having its own brand in multiple states and is also having state specific brands.

 PSL is aggressively building a brand-business, Recently the company has started electronic media promotions for its Highland Blue Whisky via Music CD Ads in W. Bengal and it has also opened 7 liquor retail outlets at prime locations in Kolkata. The company has also announced plans to market its recently launched XXX Rum and Orange Gin via Music CDs.

PSL is going to invest INR 400 crores on expansion over next two years, While around INR 120 crores will be funded through internal accruals remaining will be via Bank Loan and Market Borrowing.

Currently, PSL is having IMFL production capacity of 1.2 million cases a year and it plans to increase it to 3 million cases over the next two years. PSL is going to launch its IMFL products in four high liquor consuming states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telangana and Delhi in phases.

The company is also looking at alternative packaging strategy to boost its sales, It is investing 6-8 crores in its bottling plant in Rajarhat to introduce tetrapaks for some of its brands. Tetrapek offers an opportunity to retail less than the conventional 180ml bottles which increases sales for economical liquor companies as seen in state of Karnataka. PSL is also planning to invest Rs 50 crores to acquire some bottling plants, one being the country spirit bottling unit at Kharagpur with a capacity of 3 lakh bottles per day and another in Burdwan with a capacity of 2 lakh bottles per day.

Coming to the financials, PSL has grown really well in the recent times. Take a look at the results table below :-

Particulars
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
till Dec14
FY15
Estimate
FY18
Expectations
Sales (Cr)
106.55
244.64
320.09
382.57
427.43
575.61
1500
Net profit (Cr)
2.79
6.86
8.48
9.95
10.40
14.02
36
EPS
2.80
6.84
8.46
9.93
10.37
13.99
33.57

From sales of around 100 crores in FY11, PSL had grown to 380 crores+ sales in FY14 and now so far in the nine reported months of FY15 it has already reported topline of more than 420 crores and at end of FY15 it is expected to post sales of 575 crores and a net profit and eps of around 14. Looking at the growth and expansion plans it looks like PSL will meet its managements guidance of 1500 crores topline in FY18 and that will take the EPS to about 34.

 From sales of around 100 crores in FY11, PSL had grown to 380 crores+ sales in FY14 and now so far in the nine reported months of FY15 it has already reported topline of more than 420 crores and at end of FY15 it is expected to post sales of 575 crores and a net profit and eps of around 14. Looking at the growth and expansion plans it looks like PSL will meet its managements guidance of 1500 crores topline in FY18 and that will take the EPS to about 34.

On the valuations front, with FY15 EPS of about 14 at current price of 115 the P/E ratio comes at around 8.25. The industry average p/e of the sector is around 69.

PSL can be directly compared with brand-centric Som Distilleries & Breweries Ltd which is trading at a P/E 30 that too despite the fact that SOM has not been growing fast like PSL. Another company in this sector is Tilaknagar Industries (TIL) which was trading at a p/e of around 17 before it started reporting losses and inconsistent results. TIL too is actually not a high-growth company like Pincon so it cannot be a taken as a benchmark and other company called GM Breweries Ltd which is trading cheaply does not have any aggressive brand business and retailing its products cheaply with no brands to show.

Note: Regarding the promoter holding, Much like ITC the promoters have declassified themselves as non-promoters but see the shareholding pattern almost 30% is with Mr Roy and another 30% lies with board member owned companies and other Kolkata based groups. Which means about 60% of the equity is with people running the company.
 
All in All i feel, PSL is a great opportunity for long-term investors and looks set to be a multibagger. At 115 or even at 200 it looks a great potential multibagger stock to buy with eyes set on growth.
 
If we take a modest P/E of 20 then Pincon Spirit Ltd should be currently trading at around 280 and if we take the FY18 expectations of 1500 crore top-line then with EPS of around 34 at P/E of 20 the stock price should be 680. Remember high growth companies attract expensive P/E rating. NSE listing is imminent now and it is expected to trigger major re-rating in this stock.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have PINCON SPIRIT LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.
 
  Name of the winners for Guess This Stock - 3 is posted below as "comment" on this post.

Thursday, 14 May 2015

GUESS THIS STOCK - 3



It is the series of "Guess This Stock", this is GTS 3. Try to identify the stock from the given clues and send the answers to my email id- theaceinvestor@gmail.com. The stock along with detailed summary and name of the winners will be announced on the blog this Saturday (16th May 2015).

:CLUES:
#1 - The company is listed on one of the two prominent stock exchanges.

#2 - The market capitalization of the company is under 1000 crore.

#3 - Some readers might be forbidden from investment in this sector as per their religion.

#4 - The company had reported sales of more than 40 crores in FY14.

#5 - The company is not a loss making one.

#6 - The company's registered office is located either in southern or eastern India.

#7 - The company got listed on the stock exchange after 2010. 

#8 - Till Dec14 quarter so far in FY15 the company has already crossed its FY14 top line.

#9 - Till Dec14 quarter so far in FY15 the company has already crossed its FY14 bottom-line.

#10 - The current price of the stock is more than 10 and less than 300.

I think the above clues are sufficient to guess this stock, Let us see how many of you can do it.

I hope this GTS will help test the research capabilities of all readers and also make them do proper due diligence before entering the stock.

Do not expect confirmations on whether the guess is right or wrong and it will be good if the answer is not revealed on any web portal.

Monday, 11 May 2015

ATTENTION: GUESS THIS STOCK 3

The third GTS will be posted with clues on Thursday (14th May 2015)
 
Readers have to identify the stock from the given clues and send the answers to my email id- theaceinvestor@blogspot.com. The stock along with detailed summary and name of the winners will be announced on the blog this Saturday (16th May 2015).
 
Keep visiting and Happy Investing!

NGL FINE-CHEM LTD. - RESULT UPDATE

NGL Fine-Chem Ltd. posted on the blog at 71 on 20th November 2014.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers as follows.
 
As seen above: Sales have grown by almost 12% while Net Profit has witnessed a huge 85.20% bump up. The annual sales are now inching close to 100 crores, This veterinary focused fast growing bulk api company in the pharma sector is now trading at around 74 at a p/e of 6.29. The stock after blog post went from the 70s to touch the 52 week high of 115 and post that the stock has corrected back to 70s only because of a bad December quarter.

As a investor i think it is a strong-buy for me at cmp and obviously a stock to hold in the portfolio for multibagger returns.
.

Thursday, 7 May 2015

STOCK MARKET CRASH


 
In the last few weeks the markets have corrected significantly and many of the discussed stocks have corrected too, while some rallied about or well more than 100% within weeks some have rallied 20-40% and then started correcting.
 
Always remember that as a long-term investor we have to try and not be too bothered about the corrections which are natural in stock market. Infact, see the correction as a good opportunity to invest in the equity markets.
 
Warren Buffett once said that the secret behind his success is: "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

He also said:
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
 
The market-talk has begun suggesting as if the bull market has ended and 2008 is going to be repeated and it is the time to sell. Just do not be scared and do not panic.
 
I will be updating about each and every stock discussed on the blog along with the march quarter results update.
 
Have patience, Be a Investor not a Trader.
Don't Panic
Happy Investing!

Monday, 4 May 2015

SHILP GRAVURES LTD - RESULT UPDATE

Shilp Gravures Ltd. posted on the blog at 43 on 26th December 2014.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers as follows.
As seen above: Sales and Net Profit has witnessed decent growth. Market has rated this company for a de-growth but it has turned out to have reported a growth instead. As per the recently announced shareholding pattern the promoter stake at end of march quarter has increased to 60.12% from 60.07% a quarter ago, There is a noted increase in promoter holding every quarter consistently since the June 2013 quarter. At current price of 50, The P/E for Shilp Gravures comes at: 6.77.

No matter how much the market thinks the growth is capped, The P/E of 6.77 is extremely cheap and who knows what the constant promoter holding increase might mean in the long-term.

Shilp Gravures is still a hold, Though quite slow in terms of movement let us not get impatient in it.