Sunday 31 May 2015



  Vidhi Dyestuffs Manufacturing Ltd posted on the blog at 15.90 on 9th December 2014.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers, The annual numbers are as follows.

The numbers are superb: With 32% sales growth and 109% profit growth i don't think there is much to comment about the numbers here, all I can say is stock is trading at just around 10 p/e and in this sector (Food Color) there are only two listed companies (Dynemic Products & Vidhi Dyestuffs) while Vidhi is the market leader right now, I expect valuation of 20 p/e for both the companies due to lack of opportunity in this sector.


  Dynemic Products Ltd posted on the blog at 75 on 7th November 2014.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers, The annual numbers are as follows.

The numbers are decent: QoQ too the sales have grown by more than 10% to be above 30 crores. The company has an expansion plan (Dahej Unit) and we should read about its status when the annual report comes out. At current price of around 50 the stock is trading at only at a valuation of around 5-6 p/e while Vidhi is already at 10 P/E, As i have said both these companies should trade at 20 P/E sooner or later.
As of now Vidhi is the sector leader but i expect Dynemic to surpass Vidhi in coming years, Dynemic has reported an net profit margin of 7.32% while Vidhi's margins are at 6.61, Dynemic has already reduced the  price for its products this ficsal and still there is chance for Dynemic to reduce its prices further to outdo Vidhi. Dynemic has more of a brand value compared to Vidhi and I got a feeling that Dynemic is a potential multibagger, It also has higher EPS when compared with Vidhi.
All in all we if we take valuations of 20 P/E: Dynemic should be trading around 170 and Vidhi should be trading around 50.


  Gujarat Automotive Gears Ltd posted on the blog at 290 on 9th January 2015.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers, The annual numbers are as follows.
The numbers are decent: QoQ sales have grown by more than 26% and the net profit is up by 70%.
The company had a bad previous quarter which is why the stock had corrected and as I had chatted with the chairman Mr Rajiv Aggarwal and provided an update on the blog (LINK) The results are great QoQ.
As per the last chat, Mr Aggarwal had said that the results going forward are going to be good and the company has launched new products for which the orders will start flowing in two-three quarters, I think Gujarat Automotive Gears is going to have great days ahead.
Meanwhile, GAGL has maintained the record of paying dividend and the Promoter stake has gone up sharply in the recent past.. So this is a great investor confidence building exercise.
Valued presently around P/E of 8, I think Gujarat Automotive Gears Ltd should turn into a multibagger in future with the growth flowing in or rather i should say if the growth flows in.

Narmada Gelatines Ltd posted on the blog at 210 on 5th February 2015.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers, The annual numbers are as follows.
Narmada has announced flat annual results and there is nothing much to write about it beside stating the fact that the stock is trading at a valuation of only around 7 P/E while its peer India Gelatine is trading at a P/E of 11 and Nitta Gelatin is trading at a P/E of 20. Narmada should improve from here and we should keep a watch if the company has any plans for capacity expansion in the days ahead if so then expect some action.

Saturday 30 May 2015



  Richa Industries Ltd posted on the blog at 33 on 22nd January 2015.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers today as follows.

The numbers are good if we look at them closely: The company has managed to surprise with topline growth, if we factor in bad last quarter the annual sales expected this time around were around 250 crores but it has surprised positively to cross 300 crores. Coming to the bottom-line it has contracted mainly due to other loss of 70 lakhs this quarter and for the March 2014 the company had got a tax writeback of 2.11 crores however this time it has paid taxes.
As company has already informed via the media that in FY16 it is going to be 70% PEB and only 30% Textiles which was almost 50:50 earlier. Company has plans to reduce or boot out textiles unit soon and maybe an textile unit sale will fetch good money to the company to reduce its debt drastically which is right now around 180 crores.

From the numbers it appears that PEB is doing well and the stock is now trading at only 6 p/e while unstable and sometimes loss making peer like Sahyadri is at 10 p/e and one of the sector leader Pennar Industries is at 17 P/E. Therefore, Richa is still a strong BUY for me at these dirt cheap levels.
Richa Industries has already submitted an application to list on National Stock Exchange and it is a trigger which will improve the rating of the stock and might take it at par with its peers.

For more details on the numbers I am planning to catch up with Mr Sandeep Gupta joint-md of Richa Industries soon and have a detailed QnA published on the blog soon.


  Parnax Lab Ltd posted on the blog at 41 on 19th February 2015.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers as follows.

As seen above: The numbers are great. The sales have crossed the landmark 100 crore figure.
In the Parnax blog post i had written about expecting FY15 100 crores sales and the numbers have met it.

Looking at the sales growth of 50% and PAT growth of 70% everyone should be able to make out that this stock is a lot better than other Pharma stocks like Jagsonpal Pharma which is now trading at P/E valuation of 30 while Parnax which has recently witnessed fresh promoter buying from open markets is now trading at a P/E valuation of only 5.
If we expect atleast P/E of 15 for this successfully turned-out pharma company, the stock price should be at 75.

Its a clear buy and hold for me at these dirt-cheap valuations in an overall super expensive pharma sector.


  Mindteck (India) Ltd posted on the blog at 67 on 3rd December 2014.
 The stock is currently trading around 80, Corrected after touching high of almost 110 recently.

Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers as follows.

The numbers are of great relief for shareholders. Mindteck which has largely been unstable right from FY10 till FY13 had only started the turn around in FY14 and now as the FY15 numbers are out the company has maintained the stability and now it looks like it should be growing going forward.

The flat sales and net profit number is nothing to worry about. The company has announced consecutive dividend for FY15 as well which provides an psychological relief to shareholders that these are not paper profits but actual.
The company has also made an announcement to the exchange that Mindteck is collaborating on FDA-Approved medial device. It is a remote patient monitoring project for a multinational corporation specializing in design and manufacturing of medical devices. It is an innovative, easy-to-use, FDA-approved device which will be used to attend medical incidents from various locations and will enable doctors to provide immediate assistance from anywhere.

The key features include: Real-time monitoring, Robust communication with other medical devices, Reliable data storage and representation, Medical data transfer, Data security and accuracy, Medical standards compliance.

Mindteck also boasts of having provided end-to-end for a variety medical device manufacturers for over two decades.

Mindteck is focused on e-governance and medical IT which includes device designing, manufacturing and software support.

Though most of Mindteck's earnings from Medical IT have been from overseas it is a fact that India is witnessing a shortage of medial devices and almost all of the medical devices which are used are imported which is why govt. has announced 100% FDI allowance in medical devices sector to encourage local manufacturing and the govt. is also going for an surveillance to track the quality of imported medial devices which are likely to have import bills at $4 billion by FY-18-19.

All in all i find results are stable and hence good for Mindteck which now looks like a very good company after stable financial performance for consecutive FYs.
 Stock is trading at a p/e of 10 which cannot be considered expensive and hence looks like a good BUY for long-term.


Thursday 28 May 2015


Friends with great proud i would like to inform readers that hugely followed value investors "Ashish Chugh and Porinju Veliyath" are BULLISH on Palred Technologies Ltd.

This is a great vindication to my blogpost dated 25th April 2015.

Ashish Chugh has tweeted: 
Ashish Chugh @hiddengemsindia  ·  May 26
At time when e-comm startups asking astronomical valuations,a listed e-com startup with "Proven"promoter available for free-0 debt-MCap=Cash

and Porinju Veliyath has purchased Palred from the open markets: NSE BULK DEALS

Tuesday 26 May 2015


Sunteck Realty Ltd. posted on the blog at 280 on 11th April 2015.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers today.
Total FY2015 sales are around 302 crores, Total FY2015 net profit is around 68 crores.
Both the quarterly and the annual numbers this time around are not important. As the company is following project completion method to report its numbers it is only in FY 2017-2018 when we can expect the numbers to massively bump up on back of project completion.
Mr Kamal Khetan on the phone-call with CNBC TV-18 has already clarified that the results are only looking bad due to the project completion method being followed and already the unrecognized sales are around 2000 crores waiting to hit the books. He also said that FY16 peformance will be at par with FY14 so again almost 1000 crore top line expected in FY16.
This is a not so important result announcement here and real wealth will be made when in FY17/18 topline of 2800 crores and EPS of 70 is expected taking the stock to Rs 2100 per share at a P/E valuation of 30.
Today the stock crashed to 245 after the results were flashed on the business channels but as soon as the markets realized the importance of these numbers the stock has bounced back to around Rs 260.
 This is a quality real-estate stock which can make huge wealth for share-holders in the long run, So its a hold for this Under-construction MULTIBAGGER.

Thursday 21 May 2015



 Pincon Spirit Ltd posted on the blog at 115.50 on 16th May 2015.
Company has announced March 2015 quarter numbers today as follows.
As seen above: The numbers are way above the expectations. I was expecting full year topline to be around 575 crores and EPS was expected to be around 14.

The company however has reported growth of 80% in the top line and 67% increase in the bottom line.
The annual sales have already reached near 700 crores and Full year EPS is around 17.

For the first time, Pincon has even announced dividend which is great news for shareholders.

At current market price of around 125 the P/E comes at 7 which is extremely cheap for a fast growing company in an overall expensively valued sector.

As a investor i think it is a strong-buy and hold for me.


   Skm Egg Products Export (India) Ltd posted on the blog at 47.90 on 15th October 2014.
Company has announced results as follows.

As seen above: The full year numbers are great. The quarterly numbers were decent but market was over-expecting a bit from the company which is why the stock has already corrected more than 15% after results.

The company has also announced dividend after gap of five years.
The company has just sent sample assignments to Russia and soon it will actively start exporting to a lot more countries and regions so i think the growth has just started here and a lot of action to happen in future.

With EPS of 8.85 at current price of around 150 the stock is trading at a P/E of around 17 which looks expensive but with the company being a market leader and in a unique business where no listed competitors are there, I think the stock is still undervalued so i am going to hold it for multibagger returns with my eyes set on future growth prospects.


   Waterbase Ltd posted on the blog at 54 on 19th March 2015.

Company has announced results as follows.

As seen above: The full year numbers are great. The quarterly numbers were not so great and the market has already punished the stock due to that, But next quarter onwards good growth is expected.

The company has also announced dividend for the first time which will help the sentiment bounce back towards the bullish side again.

Its only listed peer Avanti Feeds too was a 200-300 crore company back in 2011-2012 when shares were trading around 40s and 50s so Waterbase is quite interesting at current valuations and if the management runs the company properly i don't see why they can't become Avanti of the future.
With EPS of 5.06 at current price of around 55 the stock is trading around P/E of 10 which is not expensive as only two companies are listed in this field. Avanti Feeds too is trading cheaply at p/e of 12, I am personally expecting both the stocks to rally sooner or later to trade at P/E of 20 and above.

As Daniel Kahneman says: "If owning stocks is a long-term project for you, following their changes constantly is a very, very bad idea. It's the worst possible thing you can do, because people are so sensitive to short-term losses. If you count your money every day, you'll be miserable"

Holding with patience is the right decision here.

Please note: My blog was hacked for a brief period and today i have regained access to it, Sorry for the outage.

Saturday 16 May 2015


About The Company & Business
Pincon Spirit Ltd (PSL) is headquartered in Kolkata, West Bengal.
The company incorporated in 1978 is promoted by Mr Manoranjan Roy who was recently awarded Outstanding Entrepreneurship Award for outstanding and exemplary achievements in Entrepreneurship from Enterprise Asia at the Asia Pacific Entrepreneurship Awards 2015.

PSL is in branded IMFL business. Product portfolio includes: Highland Blue Deluxe Whisky, XXX Rum, King's Coin Vodka, Pincon 9000 Beer. The company also deals in country spirit and edible oils.

The corporate office of the company is located in Bengaluru. The company is having its factories in Kolkata, 24 Paragnas and Agra (U.P).

PSL is listed on the BSE via direct listing norms and it has also submitted the application to list on NSE last month.

Kuntal Chatterjee is the COO of the company. Mr Chatterjee was a part of Allied Blenders & Distillers the makers of Officer's Choice which is a very successful brand. Mr Chatterjee has also held responsible position at Diageo.

The Ace Investor - Value Pick
  BSE: 538771
PSL is currently trading around 115 with a market cap of around 120 crores.
Total Debt is around 62 crores, 52 week high is around 200 and 52 week low is around 70.

PSL is having presence in the sates of West Bengal, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Sikkim, and Daman. The company is having its own brand in multiple states and is also having state specific brands.

 PSL is aggressively building a brand-business, Recently the company has started electronic media promotions for its Highland Blue Whisky via Music CD Ads in W. Bengal and it has also opened 7 liquor retail outlets at prime locations in Kolkata. The company has also announced plans to market its recently launched XXX Rum and Orange Gin via Music CDs.

PSL is going to invest INR 400 crores on expansion over next two years, While around INR 120 crores will be funded through internal accruals remaining will be via Bank Loan and Market Borrowing.

Currently, PSL is having IMFL production capacity of 1.2 million cases a year and it plans to increase it to 3 million cases over the next two years. PSL is going to launch its IMFL products in four high liquor consuming states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telangana and Delhi in phases.

The company is also looking at alternative packaging strategy to boost its sales, It is investing 6-8 crores in its bottling plant in Rajarhat to introduce tetrapaks for some of its brands. Tetrapek offers an opportunity to retail less than the conventional 180ml bottles which increases sales for economical liquor companies as seen in state of Karnataka. PSL is also planning to invest Rs 50 crores to acquire some bottling plants, one being the country spirit bottling unit at Kharagpur with a capacity of 3 lakh bottles per day and another in Burdwan with a capacity of 2 lakh bottles per day.

Coming to the financials, PSL has grown really well in the recent times. Take a look at the results table below :-

till Dec14
Sales (Cr)
Net profit (Cr)

From sales of around 100 crores in FY11, PSL had grown to 380 crores+ sales in FY14 and now so far in the nine reported months of FY15 it has already reported topline of more than 420 crores and at end of FY15 it is expected to post sales of 575 crores and a net profit and eps of around 14. Looking at the growth and expansion plans it looks like PSL will meet its managements guidance of 1500 crores topline in FY18 and that will take the EPS to about 34.

 From sales of around 100 crores in FY11, PSL had grown to 380 crores+ sales in FY14 and now so far in the nine reported months of FY15 it has already reported topline of more than 420 crores and at end of FY15 it is expected to post sales of 575 crores and a net profit and eps of around 14. Looking at the growth and expansion plans it looks like PSL will meet its managements guidance of 1500 crores topline in FY18 and that will take the EPS to about 34.

On the valuations front, with FY15 EPS of about 14 at current price of 115 the P/E ratio comes at around 8.25. The industry average p/e of the sector is around 69.

PSL can be directly compared with brand-centric Som Distilleries & Breweries Ltd which is trading at a P/E 30 that too despite the fact that SOM has not been growing fast like PSL. Another company in this sector is Tilaknagar Industries (TIL) which was trading at a p/e of around 17 before it started reporting losses and inconsistent results. TIL too is actually not a high-growth company like Pincon so it cannot be a taken as a benchmark and other company called GM Breweries Ltd which is trading cheaply does not have any aggressive brand business and retailing its products cheaply with no brands to show.

Note: Regarding the promoter holding, Much like ITC the promoters have declassified themselves as non-promoters but see the shareholding pattern almost 30% is with Mr Roy and another 30% lies with board member owned companies and other Kolkata based groups. Which means about 60% of the equity is with people running the company.
All in All i feel, PSL is a great opportunity for long-term investors and looks set to be a multibagger. At 115 or even at 200 it looks a great potential multibagger stock to buy with eyes set on growth.
If we take a modest P/E of 20 then Pincon Spirit Ltd should be currently trading at around 280 and if we take the FY18 expectations of 1500 crore top-line then with EPS of around 34 at P/E of 20 the stock price should be 680. Remember high growth companies attract expensive P/E rating. NSE listing is imminent now and it is expected to trigger major re-rating in this stock.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have PINCON SPIRIT LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.
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