REVIEW - BLOGGING SINCE 2014

Dear Friends,

This blog was started on 15th October 2014.

The blog has completed 3 years now.

I thought this was a good time to check how things have fared since beginning of time.

So here is the latest review of everything that has been posted on the blog.

Total of 51 stocks have been posted on the blog so far.

Average returns at peak is 134.98% (Cumulatively all stocks rallied atleast 134.98% from blog post price)

Average returns at cmp is 71.13% (Cumulatively all stocks are still up by 71.13% from blog post price)

Top gains for a stock at peak was for NGL FINE-CHEM at 561.97% (Stock went from 71 to hit 470)

Top loss for a stock at cmp is Commex Technology at -81.7% (Stock went from 3.82 to 0.50, however in the blog post of Commex it was clearly mentioned that its a gamble)

Have always said, readers should book partial profits as per their comfort and try to get maximum gains in the long-term by holding FOC shares (Free Of Cost Shares) 

I hope readers are happy with the posts/write-ups on the blog. Keep reading!!

Thanks & Regards,
The Ace Investor

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BE VALUE SENSITIVE

BE VALUE SENSITIVE

First and foremost, This is no Doomsday forecast.
Just a view to exercise caution in markets since valuations are getting stretched.
Nifty is close to 10500 right now and;
This is no more a stock pickers market but a traders paradise.

When we say be value sensitive, a lot of people argue saying, XYZ is trading at 60 p/e because it is the market leader so it will sustain and 2025 will be great.

Understand the journey of a stock.
Lot of  small,mid & even large cap stocks having completed their cycles of over-valuations in the past were in the undervalued territory in 2013-2014. From there they rallied sharply. As of date, Lot of them are in the fairly valued or over valued territory. That is when Analysts start estimating earnings of 2020 and justifying the valuations or over-valuations. But, A stock can fall to the under-valued territory again as well, We can claim valuations are attractive considering 2025 earnings but then, Before the stock prices rallied, we had no good future? If the future was expected to be good then why the valuations were low?

Understand the cycle from Undervalued to Overvalued to Undervalued again.

So it can happen, there is nothing like, This stock won't correct because it is fairly valued, or say Asian Paints cannot correct from 60x P/E because 2020 numbers are expected to be good.

Btw: Saudi Arabia's ARAMCO the Oil major PSU is going for an IPO in 2018 and the issue size would be close to 100 billion usd, the largest ever in history and bigger than Alibaba's 25 billion usd and a Global listing on NYSE is being weighed right now. (Global Liquidity Sucker?)

This gyaan might seem pointless right now, Remember it when the fall starts :)

Prem Doshi
ACE Equities

Take Solutions Ltd - Value Pick - GTS 6

Received 187 answers to the Guess The Stock 6 and not one got it right, I guess this time the clues were very tough.

TAKE Solutions Ltd
Market Cap: 2100 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 162
Current P/E: Around 16 against FY17 EPS.
POSITIVE: Niche business serving recession proof industry, Shriram Group
NEGATIVE: Low margin SCM Business sale not going through.

Take Solutions is a niche IT company which has two business divisions Life-Sciences Solutions and Supply Chain Management. Life-Sciences (LS) division form more than 75% of the company's total business.. 

Under the LS business Take has its subsidiary named Navitas Lifesciences which provide Healthcare software solutions to leading pharma companies. Navitas now is a company consisting of multiple acquired brands such as Navitas, Ecron Acunova, Intellent and others.
Navitas provides end to end services across the various stages of the drug development life cycle, starting right from clinical trials to filing regulatory submissions. They have helped bring 330 + Drugs in the market and has filed more than 100,000 regulatory submissions. The company has put together a strong head count consisting of Doctors, PhDs and bio-statisticians. Though spread over geographies, almost 97% of the LS business revenue comes from the US.

In Supply Chain Management (SCM) business the company caters to clients from the technology, consumer packaged goods, oil and gas and automotive sectors.

As for SCM business the company has been keen to sell SCM division since the margins are well below double digits for the same. However, the deal has not gone through yet and this has remained as an unwanted work in progress for the company.

The company started the LS business after the recession in 2008 when one of its Pharma clients asked the company to do regulatory filing on its behalf, That is when the management spotted the potential of this recession proof business.

The management in a recent interview has cited that they are working towards building the LS division and grow it to clock about half a billion dollar revenue in LS segment (3250 Crores INR) by 2021. (Approximately, 225% growth from current revenues).

As per the company's last con-call: LS business division margins are more than 22-24% and SCM business division margins are going down well below the double digit mark and the company is advanced stage to sell the SCM business but would not like to give a deadline to it.

As for Financials for FY2017: Net Revenue were 1345 crores, Net Profit was at 130.72 crores and the annual EPS was at 9.85. The company has about 230 crores debt on its books, Promoters have 63.14% pledge-free holding. Let us take a look at its financial table :-

Financials: The company has been paying dividend consistently since listing, The revenues have grown from 182 crores to 1300+ crores in the last 10 years. The net margins are below 10% due to low performance and high capital requirement of the SCM business.

Positives: The company is operating in a very niche recession proof sector with very high growth potentials. The promoter in a recent interview said that in this business TAKE is the only company in India that has managed to enter and build business, he went on to say that even in the Europe there are not many companies working in this business. The business, the promoter group, the company's plans and commentary are some of the very key positives.

Negatives: SCM business over hang is a key negative, even though deal is said to be in final stages and should meet completion soon, in the past as well the company was said to be close to completing the division sale but it did not materialize. Which hints that there no takers for SCM business at the valuation the company is seeking.

Valuations: The stock is available at 16x its earnings on the P/E front against FY17, with the kind of MOAT the company has on offer, the growth potentials, The management quality, the guidance of 3300 crores top line. 

All in All, The stock seems to be in the value territory in a market which has sharply run-up and a potential multibagger from CMP.

::LINKS::
Take Website
Navitas Website
Management Interview
Screener-Take

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have Take Solutions LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Guess This Stock 6

It is the series of "Guess This Stock", this is GTS 6. Try to identify the stock from the given clues and send the answers to my email id- theaceinvestor@gmail.com. The stock along with detailed summary and name of readers who guessed right will be announced on the blog this Sunday (29th October 2017).

:CLUES:

1) Current Market Cap is under 3000 crores

2) Current Stock Price is under 350.

3) Promoters Hold more than 55%.

4) June 17 (latest) quarter top-line had double digit growth YoY (June 16)

5) Co. reported highest net profit since listing (FY17 Annual Nos)

6) Co.'s majority of product or services find application in a recession proof industry.

7) P/E is under 20.

Email your answers on theaceinvestor@gmail.com. Right answer with a small write-up along with your name will be posted on the blog on 29th October 2017, Sunday afternoon.

HAPPY DIWALI

Wish all the readers and their loved ones a Happy Diwali and a very prosperous new year ahead.

The stock which I shortlisted to publish today has already went up by more than 15% on Friday so I will not be posting any new stock today. Inconvenience is regretted. 

Hope to write something new soon!

Diwali Greetings & New Stock

  Wish all my readers & their families a Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year.

Hope everyone has benefited from the blog..

This DIWALI on Thursday, New stock will be updated on the blog before Muhurat Trading around 3PM. (i.e. 19 October 2017 - 3 PM IST)

Market will be open for Muhurat Trading on 19th October, The timings :-

6:15:PM - to - 7:30:PM.

Happy Investing and once again Happy Diwali friends!

http://theaceinvestor.blogspot.com

Hello from Ace Equities!

Dear Readers,

As I had informed you all in my earlier post "Dear Readers"

I am happy to announce about our new venture "ACE EQUITIES" http://aceequities.in

Since many years I am fondly called as "THE ACE INVESTOR" by all of you. And now with ACE Equities I want all my beloved readers to become ACE INVESTORS too!

Being in the stock markets since 2005, I know how difficult it is for investors & traders to make money in the markets, if you do not get the right research. I have always wanted to bring an end to this over complicated way of managing money in the stock markets by providing an All In One solution for all your financial needs.

ACE Equities as a SEBI, NSE, BSE Registered Business Partner of Edelweiss, brings to you a complete solution for all your trading and investing needs.

As you all know, the USP of ACE EQUITIES is our unmatched RESEARCH! We are bringing it all to you at ZERO charges or fees! The brokerage rates are competitive to the overall retail broking industry too.
Since you all love reading the blog, I will continue to post my inputs on it. But I cannot put all my trading & investment ideas on the blog, hence there is so much more which you can get!

To get all our services for FREE* you just need to open a Demat & Trading account with us.

Benefits of opening an account with us includes :-
-Trade & Invest across platforms from Mobile App, Desktop, Laptop, Phone Call.
-Free accurate Intraday & BTST Calls
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-Portfolio Management Services.
-Informal Trade Services

*You have to actively trade with us in order to receive our services. Just opening an account is not enough.

Opening an account with us is a quick and easy three step process!

STEP ONE  : You just need to arrange the following set of documents and send it to us by courier/regular post to our address :-

ACE EQUITIES

GROUND FLOOR

1A MADHAV CHATTERJEE LANE

KOLKATA - 700020

BESIDE SAATVIK RESTAURANT

NEAR SHRI CALCUTTA GUJARATI SAMAJ

MOBILE #: +91-7003109741

Checklist of documents required for Indian Residents:

Document	Copies
PAN Card – Permanant Account No.	2 copies - self attested by the applicant
Adhaar Card	2 copies – self attested by the applicant
Bank Statement of the last six months	Attested by the bank or should have the bank logo
If bank statement is unavailable – IT Return of last FY	Self Attested by the applicant
Cancelled Cheque of the bank to be linked with DP	1 Cheque leaf
Passport Size Photograph of the applicant	2 photographs (Aprx. 2 X 2 inch)

STEP TWO : Receive a pre-filled account opening form at your address, Sign at the required places.

STEP THREE : Send it back to us with a margin cheque and in 7 working days start enjoying all the benefits of being The ACE Investor!

For further information/clarifications: Whatsapp on +91-7003109741 or write to us on ace.equities@gmail.com

Thanks & Regards,

Prem Doshi

ACE Equities

Dear Readers

Dear Readers,

I started writing this blog back in October 2014.

In the last three years, most of the stocks that I have penned down here have performed exceptionally well. There have been stocks that doubled,tripled,quadrupled and more in no time while there are many that have not performed. Also there are many which went totally contrary to my expectations.

A review in Feb 2017 of the stocks discussed on the blog showed the performance: http://theaceinvestor.blogspot.in/2017/02/review-since-beginning-of-time.html

It has been great to pen down my understanding of the stocks on the blog. I really appreciate the kind of love and support my readers have provided. There were times when I felt like putting my blogging to an end because of the negative comments and all the trolling, But due to your support I stayed on.

To talk about the markets now, Markets work in phases and we need to adapt to it to make money.
I remember back in 2010, I was actively trading in Stock Futures.
2010-2013 was a golden period for trading in stocks that were part of F&O segment.
2014-2016 was a complete stock pickers market, Midcap and small cap investors made crazy money.
Off late now in 2017, Scouting for Multibaggers and Value Picks has become difficult for value investors.
Right now we are again in a phase when F&O Stocks are providing great movements to trade.

Prime reason for this has been that we don't have much value on offer in the mid & small caps space.

But this doesn't mean we should forget value investing right now, Infact to zero in on a value stock right now we need to study it better and that improves the chances of favorable results.

So readers, expect high activity on the blog again.

Will be scouting harder for value stocks and start posting some new ones on the blog soon.

At the same time we look to actively trade in the Top 500 stocks including the names that are in F&O to make the most of the current phase of market. Wait for an announcement regarding the same.

Hoping for your continued support,

Thanks & Regards,

Prem

UPDATE: The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd

TMRVL (The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd) posted on the blog at 193 on 19th May 2017.

THE MANDHANA RETAIL VENTURES LTD: CMP 150, Exiting and Booking Loss seems to be the best option in front of us right now, since the company will soon announce quarterly results the june quarter and if the company repeats the trend of march quarter losses. It will be hard to sell TMRVL even at double digits.
At 150 we book a loss of 22%.

VALUE PICK: INEOS Styrolution India Ltd

INTERESTING STOCK TO WATCH:

INEOS STYROLUTION INDIA LTD
MCAP: 1700 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 995/-
CURRENT P/E: Around 25.
NEGATIVE: Slow Growth.
POSITIVE: Sectoral bullishness.

INEOS is one of the two main manufacturers in Indian market for ABS (Acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) The other company is Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd. INEOS is a MNC and one of the world leaders in Specialty Chemical, Polymer space.

INEOS and Bhansali both are having a capacity of 80,000 MT each.
While demand for ABS in INDIA is at 2,75,000 MT and is expected to grow by close to 15% CAGR in the medium term. Bhansali recently announced the bull market Expansion plans to take the total capacity to 1,37,000 MT in the short-term and to 2,00,000 MT in the long term funding it with internal accruals.

If the sector is getting hot, We would expect this MNC to manage their business better and focus on it as well.

INEOS promoters hold 75% stake in the company, Making it a potential MNC delisting candidate.
Valuations wise, INEOS is cheaper compared to Bhansali.

FY17 full year nos:-

When the markets are clocking all time highs, specialty chemical and this sector has been buzzing. INEOS looks like a good opportunity which is not over-valued in this market. A 40% rally from CMP will take INEOS close to 1400 at a valuation of close to 35 P/E against FY17 earnings. With FY18 expected to be better for the sector.

Technically, INEOS is having a breakout on the daily charts closing above 1000. Its a 5 years cup and handle breakout on the charts. :-

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have INEOS Styrolution India Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

VST TILLERS TRACTORS UP 30% IN 1 MONTH

VST TILLERS UP ALMOST 30% IN 1 MONTH.

Update: I posted VST Tillers Tractors Ltd on the blog on 2nd June 2017 when the stock was trading at 1920. I wrote about a 30% rally and on 7th July 2017 the stock touched a high of 2495. Clocking a gain of 29.95% in just 1 month. Hope readers enjoyed VST.

Fresh write-up coming on the blog today at 2:30 PM.

MONSOON PICK: VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD

INTERESTING STOCK TO WATCH:

VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD
MCAP: 1600 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 1920/-
CURRENT P/E: Around 23.
NEGATIVE: Slow Growth.
POSITIVE: Sectoral bullishness

VST is India's largest manufacturer of Power Tillers (Walking Tractors).
VST is also into tractors and has brands such as SHAKTI.
VST is is also into Rice Transplanter, Power Reaper, Engines, Agriculture Implements.

AGRICULTURE stocks should be in focus as this year the monsoon is expected to be normal. The start of the monsoon has also been satisfactory, With MODI govt agenda of doubling the Farmers income by 2022. We can expect good time for Agriculture theme stocks going forward.

If we compare VST against ESCORTS, VST has better margins, slower growth and better valuation at CMP. ESCORTS with lower margins, turnaround play is at a P/E of 50+ which is more than double of what VST is presently hovering at.

If we look at VST monthly chart, you would notice every year since 2009 except once or twice the Stock has rallied in the month of June or July. Sometimes there are modest rallies of 8-10% sometimes mega rallies of 30-40%. I believe this year with everyone gung ho on Monsoon and market in the bulls grip. VST may be a good opportunity to buy and hold for a month or two.

Take a look at their website: http://www.vsttillers.com/

Technically there is a cup and handle breakout on the monthly charts for the stock above 2060 levels.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

UPDATES: B&A LTD, THE MANDHANA RETAIL VENTURES LTD.

First of all, apologies for delayed update.
I met with a mishap at the gym last week and fractured my knee cap and now on bed rest and pain killers.
Results for both B&A LTD and TMRVL (The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd) came out in the meantime.

B&A LTD: like all other tea companies has given negative results this year, which is contrary to my expectations.
The stock had moved from 200 to 355 and is again available around 200 now. Even though results are bad I don't think it is any different from other tea companies, I still believe that the TEA sector can give big movements this year. The tea price trend has to translate into earnings even though it is not happening just yet. But that is how TEA as a sector is, It is known to test your patience a lot.

People who have patience should hold and freshers can also consider entering at these levels. At 60 crore market cap it does look undervalued.

THE MANDHANA RETAIL VENTURES LTD: For the march quarter suddenly TMRVL posted losses, and the stock has corrected enough to price in bad numbers. As of now it is not known what could have caused the company to suddenly report losses. Whether any operational changes or transition caused one off or whether the company failed to realize profits in normal business remains a question. Given the full year numbers, TMRVL remains very cheap compared to all other peers in the branded clothing sector. The news of 18% GST on branded clothing got a lot of hype and that has pushed the stock lower too. It seems the stock has now found some support near 150 levels and should start journey for a recovery.

Value Pick - The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd - Being Human

The Ace Investor

The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd

  Listed on both NSE: TMRVL & BSE: 540210
Currently trading around 193 with a market cap of around 440 crores.

Promoters hold 42.95% stake.
It has a Total Debt of around 19 crores.

The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd (TMRVL) is the demerged branded clothing business of Mandhana Industries. TMRVL is in the business of design, manufacture, retail, distribute: men, women, kids clothing & accessories as the Global Licensee of the brand Being Human till atleast 2020.

Being Human Clothing needs no introduction, The fashion brand under the Being Human NGO run by one of India's biggest superstar Salman Khan. The NGO with its philanthropic activities has evolved wonderfully over the years. Its fashion venture Being Human Clothing has also done great. 

Today TMRVL operates: 60 EBO (Exclusive Brand Outlets) stores of Being Human across India and 5 EBOs overseas in Nepal, West Asia, France, Mauritius. The company as per reported data as on Oct end 2016 had 650 Point of Sales in Total for Being Human by EBOs, MBOs, Franchisees and Online partnerships.

The company now wants to focus on Tier II, Tier III cities by opening 100 new Being Human stores in the next two-three years as well as focus on going global as per news reports.

As per recent Media Reports quoting the management. The company besides Being Human is keen to get into similar business partnerships with other celebrities not only with Bollywood Starts but also the Indian Sports Fraternity by releasing their labels and paying them royalties.

Lets now take a look at financials and valuations of the company :-

As you can see TMRVL is undervalued compared to two of its peers,  TMRVL is available at a P/E of 14x with Market Cap to sales of 1.85 while Indian Terrain trades at a P/E of 31x and KKCL trades at a P/E of 25x.

Both Indian Terrain and TMRVL have similar percentage of promoter stake pledged. So that should not be a major driving force in the rating mismatch.

At valuations of 30x TMRVL should trade at 417. That is a potential upside of 111% against current price of 197.

TMRVL enjoys the advantage of indirect and direct marketing and endorsement by Salman Khan as he sports the Being Human Clothing all the time at Public Appearances as well as in his movies. The key negative here would be the dependence on one brand Being Human and the Brand's dependence on one man Salman Khan.

However, The company's plan to tie up with other celebrities can negate this risk and dependence on Being Human Brand.

Plus: Salman Khan's friendships get him a lot of Models (other bollywood celebs) for this brand,  If Salman can get someone like SRK to also endorse the brand its going to get a lot of hype.

As per latest Shareholding Pattern filing for quarter ended March 17- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 12.74% stake and Ramesh Damani holds 1.03% stake. Recently, ChrysCapital acquired 3% stake at Rs 200 per share.

Technically on the charts: If we plot the daily line chart we have a sort of falling wedge breakout in TMRVL which activates on closing above 200.

All in All, I feel this is a good under valued opportunity available in the market as the stock has not run up at all. With Salman's Tubelight releasing this Eid on 23rd June it can be another trigger for the stock. Tubelight has a Cameo of Shah Rukh Khan and both the superstars are going to be seen together on the silver screen after 10 years.

Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have The Mandhana Retail Ventures Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

:Links:

TMRVL Website

Oct 16 Presentation

India Fashion Forum Management newsbyte

ChrysCapital stake buy news

BSE Shareholding Pattern - Public Shareholders

TMRVL Screener