Monday, 5 November 2018

Are you having Free Lunch or you are someone's Breakfast?

Original Story: SeekingAlpha
Logan Kane

Robinhood Is Making Millions Selling Out Their Millennial Customers To High-Frequency Traders

Summary

Robinhood is marketed as a commission-free stock trading product but makes a surprising percentage of their revenue directly from high-frequency trading firms.
It appears from recent SEC filings that high-frequency trading firms are paying Robinhood over 10 times as much as they pay to other discount brokerages for the same volume.
Robinhood needs to be more transparent about their business model.
In English folklore, Robin Hood is an outlaw who takes from the rich and gives to the poor. Robinhood was founded to disrupt the brokerage industry by offering commission-free trading. They may not be all that they represent in their marketing, however. The question you should be asking whenever someone in the financial industry offers you something for free is "What's the catch?" And yes, there is typically a catch.
After digging through their SEC filings, it seems that today's Robinhood takes from the millennial and gives to the high-frequency trader.
Not only does Robinhood accept payment for order flow, but on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, they appear to be selling their customers' orders for over ten times as much as other brokers who engage in the practice. It's a conflict of interest and is bad for you as a customer.
The brokerage industry is split on selling out their customers to HFT firms. Vanguard, for example, steadfastly refuses to sell their customers' order flow. Interactive Brokers (IBKR), which is the preferred broker for sophisticated retail traders, doesn't sell order flow and allows customers to route orders to any exchange they choose.
Robinhood not only engages in selling customer orders but seems to be making far more than their competitors from it. Among brokers that receive payment for order flow, it's typically a small percentage of their revenue but a big chunk of change nonetheless. Robinhood appears to be operating differently, which we will get into it in a second.
All brokerage firms that sell order flow are required by the SEC to disclose who they sell order flow to and how much they pay. The people Robinhood sells your orders to are certainly not saints. Citadel was fined 22 million dollars by the SEC for violations of securities laws in 2017. Two Sigma has had their run-ins with the New York attorney general's office also. Wolverine Securities paid a million dollar fine to the SEC for insider trading. It's easy to miss, but there is a material difference in the disclosures between what Robinhood and other discount brokers are showing that suggests that something is going on behind the scenes that we don't understand at Robinhood.
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Well if this is happening in a strictly compliant developed market like USA, Wonder how you might be getting ZEROed in India?

Sunday, 23 September 2018

Violent Moves


Dear Readers,

Market is abuzz with a lot of rumors right now.

There were violent movement across stocks on Friday (21st September 2018)

Many stocks including shares of NBFC companies led by DHFL (Dewan Housing) crashed 20-50% in Intraday last week on Friday (21 September 2018) some recovered some did not..

Lets look at past instances of large companies ideally part of the F&O segment crashing by more than 20-30% in a day or intraday and how they are doing as of date. (Except 2008 January crash on P-Notes news when Indices hit the lower circuit).

1- Satyam Computers: 17th December 2008 (Before the Scam) and 7th January 2009 (Scandal)

Talk about a Satyam crash and everyone starts talking about 2009, But before the eventual Satyam Scandal break-out that happened in Jan 2009.
Shares of Satyam Computers (traded in F&O) crashed more than 30% on 17th December 2008. The stock ended close to 226 on 16th December 2008 and went on to hit a low of 153 on 17th December 2008. (32% crash)  The trigger behind the crash was management decision to acquire two promoter related companies (Maytas Group) Companies promoted by Raju’s son. The company later cancelled the plan to buy the two companies.

Satyam chairman B Ramalinga Raju expressed surprised at the market reaction to this decision that was supposed to “delight” shareholders but resulted in a shock, He said the board "decided to call off these actions. . . in deference to the views expressed by many investors".

Satyam Computers: 7th January 2009 (Satyam Scandal)

After the Dec 2008 crash, Satyam in 2009 crashed again. This time the one last time.
The stock on 7th January 2009 crashed from 179 to hit a low of 30.70 (82 % crash).
Shares of Satyam which means Truth in Sanskrit saw this collapse after B Ramalinga Raju announced his resignation as the chairman of Satyam confessing manipulating the books to the tune of under 15,000 crores. The stock eventually went on to hit single digits and was later on taken over by Tech Mahindra and eventually merged with Tech Mahindra.


2 – Akruti City (Akruti) now (Hubtown) : 20th March 2009 and 26th March 2009.

Today you see Hubtown Ltd is a listed company with a market cap of 300 odd crores at a Stock Price of 50.
But the company has a rather glorious past. The share prices of Akruti rose 2300 in March 2009 from 800 at the start of the month. A rally of almost 190% in an F&O stock.
But on 20th March 2009 struck the bears, The shares of Akruti which was heavily traded in F&O collapsed from 2210 on 19th March to hit 1570 on 20th March 2009 almost 30% crash in a day. The main reason behind the crash on 20th was merely NSE announcing F&O exclusion of the stock amid growing question marks on the sharp unusual rally in the stock while other real estate stocks were biting dust.

On 26th March 2009, which was the last traded day for this stock in F&O as all forward contracts expired on this day. The stock crashed 1850 to hit a low of 700 (62% crash in a day).
The stock ended close to 1000 (still being down by close to 45%) versus a day ago.

Post removal from F&O admist SEBI enquiries on the rally and the fall and all the WHYs and HOWs among traders and investors the stock went to hit levels close to 300 (Almost 90% wealth destruction from highs) in the next couple of months and eventually faded to oblivion.

3 – Core Education & Technologies aka Core Projects : 10th October 2008 and later February 2013.

Heavily traded F&O counter, Core Projects (Core Education) plummeted from 250 on 8th October to hit 123 on 10th October 2008, A fall of more than 50%.
After lot of whys and hows the stock started trading normally, went on to recover and traded above 300 later on in next couple of years.

In September 2012, the Stock was kicked out of the F&O segment.

Later in 2013, Core Education shares tumbled more than 80% in three days. From 300+ price on 22nd February 2013, the stock hit 56 bucks on 27th February 2013.
A crash of more than 80% in a couple of days. Again a case of lot of Whys and Hows with various theories. The key reason claimed was sell of pledged shares which was repeatedly denied by the company, S&P even assigned a B+ stable rating on the company’s bonds.

The stock later became a penny stock and as of today it ceases to exist, as shareholders still wonder what went wrong.

4 – GTL Ltd: 17th June 2011 and 20th June 2011.

Telecom Infra stock GTL Ltd, another well traded counter of F&O was the victim or rather the culprit in June 2011.
On 17th June 2011, Shares of GTL Ltd crashed from 408 day ago to hit 314 (23% crash) before ending the day at 338.

What followed was your usual sweet nothings from the management, denying any material change in business, any negative, any selling etc. Etc.

However, Next day when market opened on 20th June 2011, Shares of GTL Ltd crashed from 338 to hit a low of 124 (Almost another 65%)

That is a Total 70% crash in couple of days, Investors continued to wonder what happened, again management clarified they are pious.

The company even filed a complaint to SEBI asking them to enquire what is wrong with their stocks price.

Note: Not just GTL another group entity listed by name of GTL Infra cracked 55-60% in two days.

As of today, these two loss making debt laden companies continue to serve as a horrific memory of euphoria and panic for the market participants.

5 – Infibeam Ltd: 25th September 2017, 29th December 2017 and 21st September 2018.

One of the few listed fancy E-Commerce business, Infibeam seems to often have discount sale on their share prices too.
This F&O Counter has had a great track record of aberrations.

Infibeam shares ended at 143 on 22nd September 2017, Opened at 143 on 25th September and went on to hit a day low of 87.15 (Almost 40% knocked off) before closing at 120.
Everyone wondered what happened there.

Then up next on 29th December 2017, Infibeam from 165 crashed to 98 (40% crash) before ending the day at 141.
The company clarified that it is business as usual for them, and whatever info was due to be shared was already shared with the exchange.

But now again on 21st September 2018 the stock crashed from 235 to hit low of 141 (40% crash) to later end the day at 182.


6 – PC Jeweller Ltd: 2nd February 2018, 15th February 2018 and later on.

Shares of PCJ a listed jewellery chain tanked 484 to hit low of 218 on 2nd February 2018 (down: 55%) later the stock recovered to end at 364, Next day the stock rallied back to 470.
The trigger behind this correction was a link with Vakrangee (A busted listed company that went from 500 to 30.
Apparently, Vakrangee from open market bought 20 lakh shares of PCJ. PCJ denied any link with Vakrangee and later it became business as usual.

Then on 15th February 2018 PCJ again crashed from 376 to hit a low of 302 (Almost 20%) before ending the day at 356.
This time it was because of Nirav Modi scam that broke out, The company clarified that they do not function like how Nirav Modi had functioned and remains clean.

Later in the year, repeated rumours of the CEO being arrested to ED quizzing the management and much more, Today the stock hovers at around 70 bucks. (Down 85% from where it all started).

7 – 21st September 2018- DHFL, YESBANK, INDIABULLS HOUSING, SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE, INFIBEAM ETC.

DHFL a leading housing finance company part of the F&O segment corrected heavily on 21st September 2018.
The stock which closed at 610 on Thursday, Opened at 615 on Friday, Made a low of 274.75 (55% crash) and closed the day at 337 resulting in a Day on day down tick of 44.80%.
Despite various clarification, con-calls and everything else the stock still ended the day at some of the worst seen single day crash for a large company of 20,000+ crore market cap size (now 11000 crores).

The key trigger for such an euphoric crash is still not clear: There were some murmurs about reclassification of Loan Against Property being shown as Home Loans in the books of NBFCs. While the key reason being pinpointed by everyone right now is that: DSP Mutual Fund sold the DHFL NCDs at a higher yield triggering speculation of a rating downgrade.

DSP sold NCDs — short-term debt instruments issued by company — of DHFL worth ₹300 crore at a yield of 11%. The yield was way higher than the rate at which the previous deal happened, sparking speculation that DHFL could be facing liquidity issues, which has been strongly denied by the company.

The company did quite a few concalls and televised interviews to counter allegations. Yet the stock ended the day almost 45% down.

YES BANK shares too ended the day being down by 30%, after RBI made it clear that Rana Kapoor has to resign and YES has to find a successor for him at the Bank's top soon (Jan 19) citing concerns over asset quality disclosures

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE shares went wild on Friday, the stock went from 1160 to hit 765.65 (A crash of  34%) it also recovered sharply to end the day at 1062.

SRTRANSFIN like all NBFCs too went wild on Friday, the stock went from 1192 to hit low of 970 (A crash of  18%) it also recovered sharply to end the day at 1161.
Not a long ago on 4th July 2018, Shriram Transport went down from 1297 to hit a low of 1048 (19% crash) later closing at 1145.
The reason for 4th July was that Lenders of SVL Ltd, an unlisted holding company of the Shriram group, are planning to invoke the guarantees of Shriram Transport Finance Company (STFC) after a majority of the SVL's investments turned bad. SVL's subsidiaries like Shriram EPC, Orient Green Power and Haldia Coke are facing insolvency proceedings in the National Company Law Tribunal after a loan default.

INFIBEAM as pointed out above gave another huge crash on Friday (21st September 2018) and it remains a stock to watch for violence going ahead.

There have been many more stocks that have crashed over the years such as Vakrangee, Amtek Auto etc, where the movements were violent, however we left out of some due to lack of data availability and clarity.


ALL IN ALL: While some investors are of the view that these are good opportunities to bottom fish these stocks, I feel as the above data points out, 20-60% violent movements in stocks that are actually big in terms of market cap is not a normal occurrence.

There are less chances of smoke without any fire.


Hence, I would not subscribe to the "this time it is different" feeling and make it a point to avoid these counters that have given violent moves.

Such HUGE Draw-downs are not normal.



Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.


Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might or might not have the discussed stocks in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.


Sunday, 9 September 2018

Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd - Value Pick - GTS 8

Received 101 answers to the Guess The Stock 7 and only 3 got it right: Amit Khan, Vijendra and Shashi G.











Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd
NSE: ADVENZYMES | BSE:540025
Market Cap: 2400 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 220
Current P/E: Around 20-21 against FY19E EPS.

Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd (AETL) incorporated in 1989 is in the business of enzymes.

The company is having more than 400 proprietary enzyme products developed from 65 indigenous enzymes. The company offers these products to more than 700 developed customers, spanning presence across 50 countries worldwide.

The products find application in a wide array of industries including: human health care and nutrition, animal nutrition, baking, fruit & vegetable processing, brewing & malting, grain processing, protein modification, dairy processing, specialty applications, textile processing and others.
 
AETL is among the top 15 enzyme companies in the world. There are only two companies listed in this sector across the globe, one is AETL and the other is market leader Novozymes.

As for Financials have a look at the table below :


Financials: The company has reported robust growth in its business over time, 2018 was an exception when their net profits declined YoY, otherwise the company has delivered good earnings and now it seems to be back on track with its numbers and the management has guided for FY19 to be great and FY20 guidance is positive as well.

Here is a overview of this stock with most of its positives and negatives :-

Technical Breakout above 228-230 on the daily charts :-















All in All, The stock seems to be in the under-valued territory and I sense a case for almost 100% appreciation from CMP.

Note: The above overview captures most of the positives and negatives of the stock, I feel that dollar strength can create a ripple or a huge wave in stocks like these going ahead.

::LINKS::

Corp Website
Latest Investor Presentation
Latest Concall Transcript
Screener of AETL


Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.


Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have Advanced Enzyme Technologies Ltd in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Thursday, 6 September 2018

Guess This Stock 8

It is the series of "Guess This Stock", this is GTS 8. Try to identify the stock from the given clues and send the answers to my email id- theaceinvestor@gmail.com. The stock along with detailed summary and name of readers who guessed right will be announced on the blog this Sunday (9th September 2018).


:CLUES:


1) Current Market Cap is under 4000 crores

2) Current Stock Price is under 475.

3) Promoters Hold more than 50%.

4) FY18 Net Profit Margin is in double digits

5) FY18 Sales growth in double digit YOY

6) Company is listed on both NSE & BSE.

7) Current P/E is under 30.

8) Market Cap/Sales is under 12.

9) The stock is less than 40% above its 52 week low.

10) Currently the only listed company in its sector on BSE & NSE..



Email your answers on theaceinvestor@gmail.com. Right answer with a write-up along with your name will be posted on the blog on 9th September 2018, Sunday afternoon.

Sunday, 1 July 2018

Matrimony.com Ltd - Value Pick - GTS 7



Received 125 answers to the Guess The Stock 7 and only 5 got it right: Prashant G, Harsha, Ankush, Aadesh Chajjed, Animesh Chanchani, I guess this time the clues were very tough.


Matrimony.com Ltd
Market Cap: 1600 Odd Crores.
CMP: Around 730
Current P/E: Around 21against FY18 EPS.
POSITIVE: B2C business, Recession Proof, Under tapped market, Mayawati Proof.
NEGATIVE: No entry barriers, Competition.

Matrimony.com (MCL) incorporated in 2001 is an online matrimony venture headed by Murugavel Janakiraman.

The company is operating a wide portfolio of websites, mobile apps etc. providing match-making services to Indians living in India and abroad.

The company operates flagship brand (BharatMatrimony.com), EliteMatrimony.com, SecondShaadi.com, religion wise (Jain Matrimony.com) etc and Community wise (GujaratiMatrimony.com etc), The company also has websites like ManglikMatrimony.com.

The company has now also ventured into total marriage services offering a solution from wedding venues, photographers, apparel to honeymoon packages etc.

MCL is currently the market leader in online match making services in India with a market share of north to 60%.

According to an analytics firm comSCORE's report in 2017, MCL's online properties registered far more visitor traffic and a lot more of time was spent on its portals compared to Shaadi.com or JeevanSaathi.com.

India as we all know is a Young Country, as per an UN report backed by Census data released back in 2014, The average age of an Indian would be 29 in 2020.

We have been seeing a shift from offline services to online services across industries, backed by swelling penetration of mobile & internet technologies and availability of low cost data services.

Right now, the Indian match-making market is largely ruled by the unorganized sector, From social contacts, news paper ads to brokers (Yes brokers charge a certain % of fees of the total wedding budget from both the parties in many regions).

About 1-1.2 crores wedding take place in India annually and only 6% of the population go online to find a match. With changing dynamics the online matrimony option is bound to find a more influential place in our match-making system.

An area of concern for MCL would be a rise in popularity of dating applications such as Tinder and Facebook offering dating services. However, people have used Orkut, Facebook, HI5 etc to date since years and now Tinder has taken all the limelight but the fact is Dating is a lot different from the concept of Matrimony. More indian parents would want their children on MCL websites, create the profile on their behalf, see other profiles rather than browsing through a lot of I am looking for FUN profiles on Tinder.

One of the key reasons for MCL's success in recent times has been their venture CommunityMatrimony.com today be it the Gujarati Matrimony.com or Tamil Matrimony.com the brands have established their leadership with community specific individual apps and websites. No.2 competitor Shaadi.com was late to launch their equivalent apps such as Gujarati Shaadi. Shaadi.com today leads in the Hindi Belt (Uttar Pradesh and Bihar sort of states) they are also the most populous states of India.

To topple the competition in Hindi Belt, MCL has launched HindiMatrimony.com and are making conscious efforts to establish itself as the leading brand even in the Hindi Belt.
Even though this move involving aggressive pricing in Hindi Belt can result in some margin contraction from these regions it can also aid growth in a large manner because of the large population base.

To do a Scuttle Butt i made my profile on Shaadi.com (GujaratiShaadi) and Gujarati Matrimony.com, while both the apps had good design, accessibility etc. GujaratiMatrimony had far more matches for me.

Another important aspect was the tele-calling, while Shaadi.com did not bother about my registration except a few text messages, GujaratiMatrimony got Gujarati girls and boys to call me and speak to me in gujarati language letting me know about the advantages of the subscription and how the relationship manager allotted to me will help me find a suitable match.

Coming to the pricing, Shaadi.com's paid upgrade costs about Rs 2450 for 1 month while the 3 months package is offered at Rs 4550.

MCL's app on the other hand has no monthly package and it has a 3 months package priced at Rs 4500. However when the telecaller called me up she offered me a flat 30% discount leading to a 3 months package cost of Rs 3150.

The company's Marriage Service business has not yet turned into net profits, while there is a small amount of cash burn there, I feel it is a great opportunity for MCL to diversify from just match-making to total marriage solutions. The company can play the effective role of an aggregator by providing total marriage solutions in the long run with patience and right strategy.

As for Financials for have a look at the table below :-












Financials: The company that has listed last year, went through a downturn and has reversed recently to start making profits at healthy margins. The company also declared its dividend.

MCL faced law suit from one of its investor Mr Desai of Real Soft from USA staking a claim on 10% of the company's equity. Litigation cost over the years have said to impact the financial performance and business performance of the company.

However, as of today the litigation has been settled as the company shelled out a settlement amount of 50 odd crores.

Negatives: Increasing competition, and no entry barrier remain a key concern for the company.

Positives: The company is operating in an extremely under tapped sector with very high growth potentials. The promoter in a recent interview has highlighted these facts backed by various research reports on overall industry picture. Being in a B2C business political instability, trade wars etc. has no direct material impact on business and financial performance of the company. With the ever growing population this also becomes a sort of recession proof business if the management does the right things that are needed.

There is an interesting thing in the shareholding pattern of the company, While promoters hold 50.34% stake, 45.96% stake is with FIIs, VCs, MFs, DIIs, AIFs etc.
Another 0.42% is with Corporate Bodies, 0.48% with NRIs, 0.22% with director relatives, 0.66% with ESOP/ESOS/ESPS.

That means a total of 98.08% is in strong hands (including 0.42% of corp bodies, and 0.48% of NRIs)

That leaves a float of just 1.92% for general retail investors which equals to just 4.36 Lac shares.

Another important positive point is that as we head to states and general elections the market will be full of talks about political instability, in such a scenario MCL is a Mayawati Proof business, irrespective of who comes into power, Matchmaking and Marriages should continue to take place right?

Valuations: The stock is available at 21x its earnings on the P/E front against FY18 and at 4.88 Mcap/Sales. The company has no listed peer except Info-Edge (Naukri.com) which is trading at valuations of 56x to its earnings and at a Mcap/Sales of 15.77. (However Info-edge has various portals across industries from job market (Naukri.com) to 99acres in property it also has a 10% stake in Zomato). Another peer Justdial which has been punished heavily by the markets in last 3-4 years due to deteriorating margins, topping out of growth and google's venture into locals rendering Justdial with little utility left still trades at a valuation of 27x to its earnings.

Internet businesses in general are rated at far higher valuations, such as INFIBEAM today is trading at a P/E of more than 100 and Mcap/Sales of about 13+.

Astronomical valuation for Internet companies is a global trend.

All in All, The stock seems to be in the under-valued territory and multiplication from CMP should not be ruled out.

::LINKS::

Corp Website
Community
Management Interview
Annual Result FY18
KPMG Report on Digital Classifieds business



Note: The above is not a research report but information as available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.


Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that i might have Matrimony.com LTD in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased. Readers should consult their financial advisory before any investments.

Friday, 29 June 2018

Guess This Stock 7



It is the series of "Guess This Stock", this is GTS 7. Try to identify the stock from the given clues and send the answers to my email id- theaceinvestor@gmail.com. The stock along with detailed summary and name of readers who guessed right will be announced on the blog this Sunday (1st July 2018).

:CLUES:
1) Current Market Cap is under 2000 crores
2) Current Stock Price is under 1025.
3) Promoters Hold more than 45%.
4) FY18 Net Profit Margin is in double digits
5) FY18 Sales growth in double digit YOY
6) Company is listed on both NSE & BSE.
7) P/E is under 30.


Email your answers on theaceinvestor@gmail.com. Right answer with a write-up along with your name will be posted on the blog on 1st July 2018, Sunday afternoon.


Thursday, 21 June 2018

Take Solutions up 90% while other midcaps correct



TAKE SOLUTIONS LTD.
TAKE SOLUTIONS posted on the blog at Rs 162 on 29th October 2017.
 The stock touched a high of 308+.
In just 8 months the stock has moved up by 90%+.
This was a simple core portfolio company operating a very niche business.
Can hold free shares from hereon for further up move.
What is interesting is,Take Solutions has totally out performed the overall bearish sentiment playing in rest of the midcaps & smallcaps space.
Hope all the readers enjoyed!!!

As I see good value emerging in markets, will be actively writing out about exciting value stocks.
Like Take Solutions will be updating new set of clues for Guess This Stock 7 on Friday, 29th June 2018 morning.

Friday, 8 June 2018

VALUE EMERGING

VALUE EMERGING

Friends, On 7th November, when Nifty was around 10500 I wrote this article on blog "Be Value Sensitive" advising people to be cautious and not to buy stocks at high valuations. I remarked on the bottom of the article "This gyaan might seem pointless right now, Remember it when the fall starts :)"

Today, Nifty is at 10700 but look at select midcap and smallcap stocks. Post 31st January announcement of Long Term Capital Gain Tax, most of the stocks have made sure that no one pays any long-term capital-gain tax. Of-course there have been exceptions that have gone up sharply such as the Graphite Twins (Heg, Graphite) or our Take Solutions (Read: Discussed at 162 now at 260).

While many experts say P/Es are useless to look at, I feel for a layman it is an important tool.
The bad thing about looking at P/E is we can miss out on wealth generation in stocks like Avenue Supermarts (Dmart) but the good thing is we also miss out on Manpasand Beverages and Vakrangees of the world. It's good to make less wealth than burn a lot of wealth you know.

However, Don't decide anything by looking at the P/Es, we made that mistake in Narmada Gelatines and the stock never performed. Because minus the growth in earnings businesses enter a degrowth phase and once that happens your stock prices correct, irrespective of P/Es.

Coming to the current market scenario, Nifty is at 10700 right now.

As I had remarked in the BE VALUE SENSITIVE post :-
"Lot of  small,mid & even large cap stocks having completed their cycles of over-valuations in the past were in the undervalued territory in 2013-2014. From there they rallied sharply. As of date, Lot of them are in the fairly valued or over valued territory. That is when Analysts start estimating earnings of 2020 and justifying the valuations or over-valuations. But, A stock can fall to the under-valued territory again as well."

Today, I feel a lot of large caps are in the over-valued territory. There can be corrections in the large-caps soon now. But index might or might not even fall, Index looks to be really well managed, You can see select stocks leading a rally as the rest of the stocks go through corrections. So Index might show you 10700 or 11000, But re-balancing can certainly take place.

But, for us Retail Investors. I feel there are good opportunities now emerging in midcaps & smallcaps space.
There has been a sharp correction from highs, Some of the chased stocks that actually have good fundamentals and had become over-valued went through a correction and have come back close to the value territory. Though not highly under-valued yet.

So what I mean by all this is, Time for "Value Investing" or rather "Value Hunting" is back.
Maybe we can have another wave of correction, But like the valuations got stretched on the upside in Jan 2018, Now there are chances the valuations can get stretched in the lower side now meaning that there isn't a lot of room left for Huge Corrections in select stocks.

If everything goes well, some of the good stocks will not show these prices in next three years.

Looking forward to write more about stocks going ahead,
Prem Doshi (The Ace Investor)
ACE Equities